New Delhi: Monsoon rainfall has deteriorated in July, falling 16% below average this month after being patchy and erratic in the first four weeks of the season, which has delayed crop planting significantly and raised concerns about agricultural output.
New Delhi: Monsoon rainfall has deteriorated in July, falling 16% below average this month after being patchy and erratic in the first four weeks of the season, which has delayed crop planting significantly and raised concerns about agricultural output.
Total rainfall shortfall since June 1 has widened to 8% after being 5% lower than average at the end of June. As a result, planting of rice, the season’s main crop, is already 15% lower while the area under pulses is 19% lower than the acreage this time last year, data from the agriculture ministry shows.
Farmers can quickly make up for the lost time in planting if rainfall picks up this week as predicted by the India Meteorological Department (IMD).
The weather office on Sunday said rainfall over central, northwest and east India is expected to pick up over the next four days, but with the rain-busting El Niño phenomenon looming in the Pacific Ocean, the risk of a sub-optimal monsoon season remains.
International forecasters like the Australian Bureau of Meteorology and US-based National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration have flagged the formation of El Niño towards the end of the June-September monsoon season. Surface temperature in the equatorial Pacific Ocean has started rising towards the El Niño threshold, prompting an “El Niño Alert” from international weather offices. Analysts said rain needs to pick up within a week for farmers to make up for planting delay.
DK Joshi, chief economist at Crisil, said distribution of rainfall in irrigated and rain-fed areas would determine the impact of scanty showers on agriculture. “We’ve to wait till the middle of July. If deficient rainfall continues, then it could be a matter of concern,” he said.
Most parts of the country barring southern India and Maharashtra recorded below normal rainfall since June 1. While Maharashtra has seen a 30% excess in rainfall this season, with torrential rain disrupting life in the commercial hub of Mumbai, many agriculturally important states have received weak rainfall.
Seasonal rainfall has been 19% short of normal in biggest producer and consumer of rice West Bengal. In oilseed- and-cotton-growing Gujarat, there is 44% deficit so far, while soya bean-producing MP has 10% deficit. UP, a major producer of sugarcane and other crops, has recorded 46% below-normal rain. However, rainfall in well-irrigated Punjab has been 62% higher than average since June 1.
After a dry weekend in the northern parts of the country, rainfall in the region is expected to revive this week.
Independent forecaster AccuWeather said the monsoon flow is expected to surge towards northwest India by Tuesday, with rainfall continuing into the weekend. “More consistent rainfall is expected to follow this surge of moisture across northwest India during late July and August,” the US-based weather forecasting agency said, adding that the west coast and parts of central India are expected to continue receiving heavy downpour this week.
Reservoir levels have improved by 2% since last week. The total water available in live storage of 91 reservoirs in the country being monitored by central water commission was 32.847 BMC on last Thursday, which is 20% of the total live storage capacity of these reservoirs and 96% of storage of average of last ten years.
Latest data from states suggest that the total sown area under kharif crop last week stood at 333.76 lakh hectares compared with 388.89 lakh hectares at this time last year.
Total rainfall shortfall since June 1 has widened to 8% after being 5% lower than average at the end of June. As a result, planting of rice, the season’s main crop, is already 15% lower while the area under pulses is 19% lower than the acreage this time last year, data from the agriculture ministry shows.
Farmers can quickly make up for the lost time in planting if rainfall picks up this week as predicted by the India Meteorological Department (IMD).
The weather office on Sunday said rainfall over central, northwest and east India is expected to pick up over the next four days, but with the rain-busting El Niño phenomenon looming in the Pacific Ocean, the risk of a sub-optimal monsoon season remains.
International forecasters like the Australian Bureau of Meteorology and US-based National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration have flagged the formation of El Niño towards the end of the June-September monsoon season. Surface temperature in the equatorial Pacific Ocean has started rising towards the El Niño threshold, prompting an “El Niño Alert” from international weather offices. Analysts said rain needs to pick up within a week for farmers to make up for planting delay.
DK Joshi, chief economist at Crisil, said distribution of rainfall in irrigated and rain-fed areas would determine the impact of scanty showers on agriculture. “We’ve to wait till the middle of July. If deficient rainfall continues, then it could be a matter of concern,” he said.
Most parts of the country barring southern India and Maharashtra recorded below normal rainfall since June 1. While Maharashtra has seen a 30% excess in rainfall this season, with torrential rain disrupting life in the commercial hub of Mumbai, many agriculturally important states have received weak rainfall.
Seasonal rainfall has been 19% short of normal in biggest producer and consumer of rice West Bengal. In oilseed- and-cotton-growing Gujarat, there is 44% deficit so far, while soya bean-producing MP has 10% deficit. UP, a major producer of sugarcane and other crops, has recorded 46% below-normal rain. However, rainfall in well-irrigated Punjab has been 62% higher than average since June 1.
After a dry weekend in the northern parts of the country, rainfall in the region is expected to revive this week.
Independent forecaster AccuWeather said the monsoon flow is expected to surge towards northwest India by Tuesday, with rainfall continuing into the weekend. “More consistent rainfall is expected to follow this surge of moisture across northwest India during late July and August,” the US-based weather forecasting agency said, adding that the west coast and parts of central India are expected to continue receiving heavy downpour this week.
Reservoir levels have improved by 2% since last week. The total water available in live storage of 91 reservoirs in the country being monitored by central water commission was 32.847 BMC on last Thursday, which is 20% of the total live storage capacity of these reservoirs and 96% of storage of average of last ten years.
Latest data from states suggest that the total sown area under kharif crop last week stood at 333.76 lakh hectares compared with 388.89 lakh hectares at this time last year.