Farmers in the region have turned hopeful after weathermen have forecast a comparatively better although slightly deficient south west monsoon for Tamil Nadu.
According to weather experts, the weakening of El Nino conditions and likely setting in of La Nina conditions indicates good rain bearing winds to rise from the Arabian Sea.
According to the Indian Meteorological Department and private weather forecaster, Skymet, India is likely to get an above normal rainfall but Tamil Nadu is likely to see a slightly deficient monsoon.
"Tamil Nadu, being a rain shadow area, traditionally receives less rain from the south west monsoon. So, the moisture carrying winds usually shed their moisture on Kerala itself before they cross the Western Ghats," said meteorologist at Skymet weather services Mahesh Palawat. "So, it is only the dry winds which enter the Western part of Tamil Nadu," he said. "However, this year will be better than 2015," he added. The state usually received around 321 mm of rainfall between June and September-end.
However, the Western region's deficiency in rainfall during the south west monsoon is likely to be only between 5% and 7%, which is better than the 2015 monsoon.
"With the El Nino conditions showing signs of weakening and waning after the monsoons hit Kerala in May-end, the surface sea temperatures will come down," said Palawat. "But, the interior and coastal parts of Tamil Nadu are likely to see a 15% deficiency in rainfall received unless some low pressure systems form in the Bay of Bengal," he said.
If the El Nino effect wanes as predicted just as the monsoons hit Kerala, the state is expected to get a good south-west monsoon. "Long range monsoon models show there are signs of La Nina conditions setting in by August-September this year.
If that happens, Kerala will get good rainfall from the Arabian Sea and southern Indian Ocean," said private weather blogger, Pradeep John. "If this happens, then Tamil Nadu is also likely to get good rainfall and a good June month," he said.
According to weather experts, the weakening of El Nino conditions and likely setting in of La Nina conditions indicates good rain bearing winds to rise from the Arabian Sea.
According to the Indian Meteorological Department and private weather forecaster, Skymet, India is likely to get an above normal rainfall but Tamil Nadu is likely to see a slightly deficient monsoon.
"Tamil Nadu, being a rain shadow area, traditionally receives less rain from the south west monsoon. So, the moisture carrying winds usually shed their moisture on Kerala itself before they cross the Western Ghats," said meteorologist at Skymet weather services Mahesh Palawat. "So, it is only the dry winds which enter the Western part of Tamil Nadu," he said. "However, this year will be better than 2015," he added. The state usually received around 321 mm of rainfall between June and September-end.
However, the Western region's deficiency in rainfall during the south west monsoon is likely to be only between 5% and 7%, which is better than the 2015 monsoon.
"With the El Nino conditions showing signs of weakening and waning after the monsoons hit Kerala in May-end, the surface sea temperatures will come down," said Palawat. "But, the interior and coastal parts of Tamil Nadu are likely to see a 15% deficiency in rainfall received unless some low pressure systems form in the Bay of Bengal," he said.
If the El Nino effect wanes as predicted just as the monsoons hit Kerala, the state is expected to get a good south-west monsoon. "Long range monsoon models show there are signs of La Nina conditions setting in by August-September this year.
If that happens, Kerala will get good rainfall from the Arabian Sea and southern Indian Ocean," said private weather blogger, Pradeep John. "If this happens, then Tamil Nadu is also likely to get good rainfall and a good June month," he said.