PolitiCity: Realignment is the name of the game

S. Gurumurthy, noted columnist, a good friend of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and also the political advisor of superstar Rajinikanth, has predicted in a newspaper article “profound changes in the offing, interesting days lie ahead”.

His entire focus is on the entry of Rajinikanth into the Tamil Nadu politics.

While the entire nation is aware that this is going to effect a tectonic shift, what exactly would happen in the days to come to a number of parties remains an enigma shrouded in mystery? For instance, what is likely to happen to parties like MDMK, PMK and DMDK. All these three have been scoring only single digit percentage in the elections. Whenever they contested alone, they suffered a drubbing as well.

PMK founder Dr.S. Ramadoss told me once "we also tried to contest alone in the 1989 and 1991 elections. But we could not make much of an impact. Hence, in spite of my serious reservation, I had to go in for alliances.” He was the one who was generous enough to propagate the axiom "அரசியலில் நிரந்தர நண்பர்களும் இல்லை பகைவர்களும் இல்லை ( there is no permanent friend or foe in politics)".



He was so steady to this text that he shifted his loyalty seamlessly to both the Dravidian majors-DMK and AIADMK - in no time. If at all he is with the DMK in one election, you can be sure he would switch over to the alliance led by the AIADMK in the next. Thus he has become a laughing stock.

Now that Rajini has sounded the poll bugle though without anything concrete on the ground --- no party, no policies, principles ---, his very name sends a shiver down the spine of every party in the State.

What would happen next?

First and foremost would be the realignments.

As usual MDMK general secretary Vaiko is the first to be off the block.



He has announced his party’s support to the DMK dumping the 4-party People’s Welfare Front that he led in the 2016 Assembly elections. Besides, he has met the ailing DMK patriarch and five times Chief Minister M.Karunanidhi twice at his Gopalapuram residence.

Ironically, Vaiko seems to believe that both his partymen and also his former friends in the DMK would forget whatever he spoke against “Kalaignar” (as Karunanidhi is fondly called). Time does heal, no doubt. At the same time, memories do not fade so fast because all of us do know that Vaiko was thrown out of the DMK almost 25 years ago on several major charges. Vaiko was magnanimous to tell the media that it was Kalaignar who was his “அரசியல் ஆசான்” (political guru). Besides, he entered the Rajya Sabha in 1978 and has been member of the Upper House for three terms, all thanks to Karunanidhi. He has also been elected to the Lok Sabha also.



Vaiko was known as "Tiger Of Parliament" due to his vociferous speeches in Parliament.

It was Karunanidhi who gave him enormous responsibilities including doing the spade work with Karunanidhi’s favourite’s nephew, party’s think-tank and former Union Minister ‘Murasoli ’ Maran, in the launching of the National Front. It was this front that helped V.P. Singh become the Prime Minister after rebelling against former Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi and sabotaging the chances of the Congress Party. I was fortunate enough to cover this event in which Vaiko was the livewire.

From being just a lawyer from an agricultural family of Kalingappatty, Vaiko rose to the level of one of the topmost leaders of the Dravidian movement on a par with Arcot Veerasamy, Veerapandi S.Arumugham, Maduranthagamm Arumugam, Ko.Si. Mani, S.Duraimurugan, et al., thanks to Karunanidhi.

It was the same Karunandhi who not only expelled him from the party In 1993 but also alleged that Vaiko conspired with the LTTE leader V. Prabakaran to liquidate him.

Vaiko undertook whirlwind tour of the entire State and hit back saying that Karunanidhi was trying to impose dynastic rule on DMK and his expulsion from the party was to pave way for Karunanidhi’s third son M.K. Stalin to succeed him.



This resulted in the split of the DMK as a number of DMK rank and file trusted Vaiko because Kalaignar favouring his kith and kin is not an unknown phenomenon in the party. While leaders like K. Anbazhagan, Arcot Veerasamy and many others were in cahoots with Karunanidhi, a number of others like Chenji Ramachandran, L. Ganesan, Kannappan and Maduranthagam Arumugham walked out of the party to form a splinter called MDMK.

But Vaiko could never be compared to the phenomenon called MGR who also fell foul of Karunanidhi and got expelled in 1972. MGR not only vanquished Karunanidhi but also ruled the State till his death in 1987.

At no point of time in the history of DMK that Karunanidhi did choose to keep quiet whenever there is some rumbling in the party. While DMK founder C.N. Annadurai was always for compromise, Karunanidhi has always been for stringent action. But this failed him in the case of MGR in 1972 but helped him two decades later against Vaiko. Despite the initial hiccups Karnanidhi managed to quell the rebellion and now it is Stalin who is the Working President of the party.

During the past 25 years, Vaiko lost quite a lot of sheen. He was considered a knight in a shining armour. His oratory, which was as good as that of the top notch speakers of the Dravidian movement like E.V.K. Sampath, C.N. Annadurai, M. Karunanidhi, V.R. Nedunchezhiyan, and Nanjil Manoharan, lured the youngsters in droves to his fold. But his indecisive political strategy and his unflinching loyalty to the Srilankan Tamil militant leader Prabakaran cost him heavily.

This columnist, who had closely moved with Vaiko, especially after his exit from the DMK, could see the changes in him extremely confusing as consistency has never been his forte. Of course, this is applicable to every party in Tamil Nadu and we cannot find fault with Vaiko alone. After calling Jayalalitha corrupt and talking about it ad nauseam, he chose to align with her.

After dubbing Karunanidhin as one who lived for his family alone all along, he joined hands with him.

On many an occasion, in spite of calling himself a democrat, he is alleged to have taken decisions unilaterally. Even announcing cine star Vijayakanth, the DMDK leader, as the chief of People’s Welfare Front in 2016 elections to Tamil Nadu Assembly was said to be one such. The other parties in the front like VCK, CPI and CPI-M, resented it. After the front drew a blank, all these resentments tumbled out. Now that Front is dead and gone and Vaiko is back to his “paasarai” (camp) in the cosy company of Stalin who was once his bête noire.

Today many political analysts find it difficult to pinpoint what exactly he is trying to achieve.

So far he has failed in whatever he did. And it is a joke among the political circles that whoever has joined hands with Vaiko would invariably lose. Day is not far off when he might join the ranks of leaders like Pazha. Nedumaran and Thamizharuvi Manian who showed extraordinary promise initially but failed miserably later. So far he has also flattered to deceive.

Nobody is sure whether he would continue to hold on to his current decision for long. Will this continue at least in the local body elections?

If all civic elections are held, (nobody knows when because the ruling party is dead set on deferring it as much as possible), all the parties will have to come out with some strategy or other. I very much doubt that the AIADMK would stick its neck out by conducting the local body polls as it would expose its internal squabbles, accentuated by its defeat in the RK Nagar bypoll and emergence of side-lined leader T.T.V. Dinkaran as a formidable one (whatever be the cost). Hence, there is every possibility that Tamil Nadu might be facing Lok Sabha polls much ahead of civic elections.

Lok Sabha elections will give one more opportunity to all the parties dust their political strategy and revisit the alliances though not much is at stake for many except the national parties (Congress, BJP, CPI, and CPI-M) and the two regional majors. Rajni’s ambivalence could prove a spoil sport there too.