DMK working president M.K.Stalin’s sudden desire to go it alone in the elections to the State Assembly has set the tongues wagging. Does he really mean it or is it just bravado or a redherring?
DMK working president M.K.Stalin’s sudden desire to go it alone in the elections to the State Assembly has set the tongues wagging. Does he really mean it or is it just bravado or a redherring?
Tamil Nadu politics is already in turmoil due to the premature demise of former Chief Minister and AIADMK supremo Jayalalitha and the virtual retirement of five-time Chief Minister and DMK patriarch M.Karunanidhi.
The unexpected fall-out has been the birth of three more parties in the already saturated political spectrum.
Even for journalists like me covering Tamil Nadu politics close to four decades, it is difficult to keep track of the number of parties in the horizon.
While the parties floated by sidelined AIADMK leader T.T.V.Dinakarn and "ulaga nayagan’ Kamal Haasan have already come into being, the one announced by "super star" Rajnikanth on the last day of last year is yet to see the light of the day.
Though he is yet to launch his party, which is yet to be named, Rajnikanth was categorical that his party would contest all the 234 constituencies in the Tamil Nadu Assembly.
Kamal Haasan, who has also been waxing eloquent about his aversion towards mediocrity and corruption, might also be left with no other alternative but to pitch his party candidates for all the constituencies.
Whether you consider these two as "credible politicians" or not, nobody can deny that they are likely to take away a chunk of votes. With most of the parties in Tamil Nadu having earned a very bad name, they will be at a great disadvantage against the two actors.
For instance, both the AIADMK and the DMK have become symbols of not only "corruption" but also "family rule".
Even the party launched by Dinakaran - Amma Makkal Munnetra Kazhagam - will have the same taint because it is his family, derisively called "Mannargudi mafia", that has been alleged to be squarely responsible for several misdeeds and maladministration of the Jayalalitha regime.
The most interesting scenario obtaining in Tamil Nadu is that there is not a single party which has not been in cahoots with the AIADMK or the DMK at some point of time or other. This category includes the Congress, BJP, Pattali Makkal Katchi, Desiya Murpokku Dravida Kazhagam, Viduthalai Chiruthaikal Katchi, CPI-M, CPI, and of course, Vaiko’s MDMK.There are several other parties like Mooventhar Munnetra Kazhagam, Samathuva Makkal Katchi, Indian Union Muslim League, TMMK, Kongu Makkal Katchi, Uzhavar Uzhaipalar Katchi, etc. and no body is certain of their stand on any issue. The only certainty is that they would join hands with any party without batting an eyelid.
Ideology or conviction does not mean anything to them. It is all pure opportunism expediency. Even the major parties like the DMK and the AIADMK have never bothered about ideology. After all, Jayalalitha didn’t mind being in the company of Vajpayee and neither Karunanidhi.
For the left parties in Tamil Nadu, ideology is just a smokescreen. All the agitations launched by them against certain governments have suffered a natural death because they used to give them up the moment the elections are announced.
Thus both the actors begin their innings with a certain advantage.
In such a situation, Stalin’s assertion at the party’s two-day zonal conference at Erode (that concluded this Sunday) that his party would try to go it alone in the Assembly elections has caused a lot of confusion and even consternation.
For instance, MDMK general secretary Vaiko has already announced that he would work with DMK (which threw him out in 1993 after a stint of close to 30 years in the party including thrice as Rajya Sabha MP). Ironically, it was in order to ensure the DMK throne for Stalin that Vaiko met this fate at the hands of his once-upon-a-time mentor Karunanidhi. Thus Stalin has no love lost for Vaiko who split the DMK and weakened it considerably. I wonder whether Stalin is going to accommodate him as Vaiko desires.
VCK leader Thol.Thirumavalavan is known for prevarication. He has also been with various alliances and even tried his best to cobble together a new front under the name "Makkal Nala Koottani" (People Welfare Front) in 2016 under the leadership of DMDK chief Vijayakanth.As it failed miserably at the hustings and was unable to secure even a single seat, he is at a cross-roads. Without the alliance of either the DMK or the AIADMk, he would find very difficult to score anything in the electoral arena.
I am unable to understand the strategy of DMDK which has become the puppet of Vijayakanth’s wife Premalatha.
PMK has been very active with its founder Dr.S.Ramadolss and the heir apparent Dr.Anbumani Ramadoss coming out with reactions at regular intervals. It would be happy to face the local body elections. But the ruling party is averse to conduct the same for obvious reasons.
The AIADMK, despite being a ruling party, knows full well that it is on its last legs. Neither Edappadi K.Palaniswami nor O.Panneerselvam could be considered a mass leader vote catcher. There is not a single pan-Tamil Nadu leader in the AIADMK. Come Lok Sabha elections, the style and strategy of its leaders would stand exposed. The party’s performance then will indicate whether it would disintegrate in 2019 itself or just before the Assembly elections in 2021. How far Dinakaran would be able to poach from the official AIADMK by then is also a very big question mark.
Thus there is every possibility that Stalin might be pitted against his one-time close friend Kamal Haasan and actor Rajnikanth. Though Stalin does have a strong organization at his command, he has got to be extremely wary of his elder sibling M.K.Alagiri. Besides, he has to ensure that his party also doesn’t suffer erosion due to the advent of the two actors.
He also knows that most of his rank and file are extremely unhappy that it is only certain families that were benefitted during the past half a century. Such disgruntled elements would not hesitate to jump ship if they find the parties of the two actors quite alluring.
It is a universal secret that the DMK is no more enamoured of the Congress with which it has been a junior partner in the Central Government for 10 years. While DMK managed to get berths in the Union Council of Ministers from the Congress both in the UPA-I and UPA-II,it did not bother to reciprocate any berth to the Congress between 2006-2011 despite being supported by the Congress.It was only EVKS Elangovan, former TNCC president, who has been consistently demanding it .But its Central leaders never bothered about Tamil Nadu.
With the Congress losing its grip over the Central Government, DMK does not need it any more.At least as far as Tamil Nadu is concerned, Congress is a spent force and even its vote share has been declining election after election.
Though it contested 42 seats in the 2016 Assembly elections, all that it could win was only 8.
Besides, it is the same congress which has been refusing to part with even a cusec of water in the Cauvery despite Tamil Nadu being in the virtual grip of a famine. The Congress leaders from Tamil Nadu, including the great "PC", are unable to get any help for Tamil Nadu from Karnataka.
Thus, Congress has become a liability for the DMK as it would find it difficult to justify its association. Probably this is what Karunanidhi called "koodaa natpu" (inappropriate friendship).
Whether Stalin would be "magnanimous" enough to accommodate "fair-weather" friends like Vaiko, Thirumavalavan, CPI and CPI-M is a very big "if". Hence, there is every possibility that what he asserted at Erode as his election strategy could prove to be true thus leaving many of his former allies in the lurch.