The proposed tours of three bigwigs in Tamil Nadu in the next few months are likely to impact the political scenario very seriously and probably trigger the disintegration of the AIADMK.
The proposed tours of three bigwigs in Tamil Nadu in the next few months are likely to impact the political scenario very seriously and probably trigger the disintegration of the AIADMK.
Though T.T.V. Dinakaran, sidelined AIADMK leader and the nephew of the jailed general secretary of the AIADMK, V.K.Sasikala Natarajan, could be considered far less in popularity chart compared to superstar Rajnikanth and “ulaga nayagan” Kamal Haasan, it is Dinakaran’s tour which is likely to prove a tsunami. Because it is his tour which is likely to begin the end of the monolith like the AIADMK built assiduously over the past 45 years by matinee idol MGR and subsequently by his protégé Jayalalitha. It might end up as a big headache for the law and order machinery as well as it is the pro-Dinakaran and anti-Dinakaran groups of the AIADMK would be clashing in the dark.
The major advantage Dinakaran has is that though the AIADMK is in power, none of its leaders, including Chief Minister Edappadi K. Palaniswamy (EPS) and Deputy Chief Minister O. Panneerselvam (OPS), could be deemed a mass leader or a crowd-puller. Besides, the whole world knows that it was because of Dinakaran, OPS came into prominence. Originally a tea shop owner, OPS rose to become the Municipal Chairman of Periyakulam. It was Dinakaran who brought him into State-level politics as a reward for his loyalty and leg work when the former contested from Periyakulam constituency. Being a member of the community to which Sasikala belongs, the career graph of OPS showed a steep rise. Former Chief Minister and AIADMK supremo Jayalaithaa had so much of faith in Sasikala that she also trusted OPS and made him his stand-in CM thrice.
When covering the Tamil Nadu Assembly I have seen OPS, the Finance Minister, standing in a 40 deg angle whenever Jayalalalitha spoke to him. It was extremely obsequious but Jayalalitha loved this total subservience. Of course, no Minister is an exception to this form of obeisance in the royal court of Jayalalitha.
Besides, EPS is also the choice of Dinakaran at the meeting of the AIADMK legislators at the Koovathur Resort where they were all accommodated to prevent poaching. That is how he was anointed the CM by Sasikala in just a matter of minutes before leaving for jail.
Now that Dinakaran has “managed” to emerge victorious in the RK Nagar bypoll, the EPS-OPS duo is left with no other option but to expel Dinakaran supporters from the party. This has become virtually a routine affair as not a day passes without an announcement regarding the expulsion of some office-bearer or other. This trickle might snowball in the days to come even as elections come- be it for local bodies or Lok Sabha. I wonder whether anybody in the AIADMK would be interested in contesting for a Lok Sabha seat spending a huge amount. After all, for all politicians election is just an investment.
Both EPS and OPS know very well that all the support that they are at present getting from the ministerial colleagues, MLAs and also party’s rank and file is because of their power as CM and Deputy CM. It is the glue. The moment elections for the State Assembly are announced, they will be deserted once and for all.
They are also well aware that there is every possibility that the party might disintegrate. Some of the AIADMK leaders may be “wise” enough to skip contesting from the elections as some of our “tallest” Congress leaders, including P.Chidambaram, did in 2014 Lok Sabha elections.
Continuing expulsions from the AIADMK would help Dinakaran consolidate his strength. Besides, those who do not have any party posts would also hope to have his darshan to further their ambitions. During the proposed tour, Dinakaran will get an opportunity to meet all his loyalists and marshal his political resources.
But there is a problem.
Once AIADMK starts disintegrating, I am sure that a substantial number would start migrating towards the new parties to be launched by the actors Rajnikanth and Kamal.
Gone are the days when the very word “Amma” has evoked a sense of reverence. Hence, I very much doubt how much Dinakaran is going to benefit by calling himself AIADMK (Amma) leader. If he were to float a new party, it would be far worse for him as he is nothing without the AIADMK tag.
Though Dinakaran is trying to steal the early bird advantage, he is no patch on Rajni and Kamal. While both the actors are going to launch new parties and build new political structures with attendant benefits and risks, all that Dinakaran could hope for is consolidation of the AIADMK votes, believed to be around 1.5 crores.
The younger generation is likely to opt for either of the actors’ parties. Even among the middle aged, the charm for AIADMK would have waned by 2021. As both the DMK and the AIADMK carry the labels of corruption, it would be very difficult for Dinakaran to pitch for any more new votes.
It is this disenchantment with both the Dravidian majors that would help both Rajni and Kamal in their tours. What they say in the tours, especially while covering rural areas, might strike a chord among the populace.
Kamal, who has been frequently coming out with some scathing criticism regarding how the AIADMK Government administers, might even be able to evolve some concrete programmes thanks to his tour from former President A.P.J.Abdul Kalam’s native home at Rameswaram.
Similarly, Rajni, who already has been getting quite a lot of political advice, especially from people like S.Gurumurthy, would also start building his party structure which remains amorphous at present.
The crowds for both of them are likely to be massive and far bigger than what Dinakaran could attract.
Apart from the disgruntled AIADMK elements, Rajni and Kamal are likely to attract voters from various other parties including Viduthalai Chiruthaikal Katchi, Paattali Makkal Katchi, Marumalarchi Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam and Desiya Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam. There are many other smaller parties which might cease to exist once Rajni and Kamal launch their own.
Their tours, which are likely to be State-wide, would also attract enormous media attention. Both men and women, irrespective of their age, are likely to attend their meetings, probably more to see them than to hear them. This is what exactly used to happen when MGR toured the State in 1970s after being expelled from the DMK.
Electronic media would go to town with both Rajni and Kamal for a substantial period. Both are unknown commodities would add to the mystery and as of now both do not carry any baggages of corruption.But Dinakaran would always be looked at from the prism of Sasikala, a known symbol of corruption and extortion. If Dinakaran were to take part in the local body elections, (if at all conducted) that would be the real litmus test not only for Dinakaran but also for EPS and OPS. No amount of money power and muscle power would be able to see them through in such an election because that is the real barometer of the popularity of the party and also the individual candidates. Direct election for the posts of Mayor of corporations and chairpersons of municipalities has added additional spice to the contest.
Only the CPI and the CPI-M, both with a very poor strength, are unlikely to be affected because of the two actors.