Sidelined AIADMK leader T.T.V.Dinakaran is scheduled to launch his new party today. The RK Nagar MLA and the nephew of the jailed AIADMK general secretary V.K.Sasikala Natarajan has already obtained the permission for having the name of AIADMK (Amma) for his party and "pressure cooker" as its symbol.
Sidelined AIADMK leader T.T.V.Dinakaran is scheduled to launch his new party today. The RK Nagar MLA and the nephew of the jailed AIADMK general secretary V.K.Sasikala Natarajan has already obtained the permission for having the name of AIADMK (Amma) for his party and "pressure cooker" as its symbol.
Naturally the most worried would be the current regime headed by Edappdi K.Palaniswami and O.Panneerselvam.
Despite their outward indifference to what is being enacted by Dinakaran, both of them know that their days are numbered. They are well aware of the phenomenal economic clout that Dinakaran has. Besides, he has been building up the mass base brick by brick as well by maintaining incredible equanimity even when confronted with the worst trials and tribulations.
He has been methodically meeting the party cadre and he knows full well that it would be possible to wean away the disgruntled elements in the AIADMK to his side anytime soon. Of course, the pending decision of the Madras High Court on the disqualification of the 18 MLAs who have been supporting him would definitely have a major bearing on his ability to protect his followers.
If these 18 MLAs escape disqualification, that would be a very great boost to his leadership. But, if the High Court were to affirm the Speaker’s decision that would be a great blow to Dinakran. Of course, he would appeal and is capable of even going to the Supreme Court. Similarly, if the MLAs escape disqualification, there is every possibility of the Tamil Nadu Government and also the Speaker P.Dhanapal approaching higher court. Either way, top notch lawyers would be able to fatten themselves.
More important at present is how the Edappadi-OPS duo is going to stem the rot within.
Both of them know very well that many of their current staunch supporters are fair-weather friends. These supporters are with them only because they are heading the Government which can survive up to 2021 if nothing extraordinary were to happen in between. Their litmus test would be the 2019 Lok Sabha polls But the moment these followers smell something amiss, they would switch their loyalty in a jiffy.
I am always reminded of what "navalar Nedunchezhiyan", who was fondly called - "nadamaadum palkalai kazhagam" did.Even trapeze artiste would find it difficult to emulate him.
Thanks to the pressure of then Chief Minister and DMK president M.Karunanidhi, it was Nedunchezhiyan who proposed the expulsion of matinee idol and party treasurer M.G.Ramachandran from the DMK in 1972.Only one MLA, C.V.Velappan of Kabilarmalai, had the guts to back MGR. All other tops leaders either stood by Karunanidhi or kept their mouths shut.
Same Neducheqhicyan chose to shift his loyalties to MGR when the actor proved in 1977 that he was a far formidable force than all the top DMK leaders envisaged him to be.Neduchezhiyan found a berth (always number 2) in all the three cabinets of MGR and even the cabinet of his successor Jayalalithaa. Ironically, he was opposed to Jayalalithaa also who snubbed him and three other leaders - Panrutti S.Ramachanddran, C.Aranganayagam and S.Thirunavukkarasu (now Thirunavukkarasar) - as "uthirndha romangal" (fallen hairs). Among the four, it was Nedunchezhiyan who was the first to join her cabinet. Ramachandran took close to 20 years to rejoin her party.
When senior politicians like Nedunchezhiyan, who was in politics close to half a century, could switch their loyalties without batting an eyelid, how about the smaller fries?
The strategy of Dinakaran is obvious. He is slowly using his friendly overtures to the partymen like a chisel, to chip away the party. He is in no hurry because he knows full well that whatever he does might indirectly help his political rival and DMK heir apparent M.K.Stalin.
Stalin is no Karunanidhi whose political sagacity is said to be next only to that of "Chanakya" Rajaji (C.Rajagopalachari). Honestly, I would consider Karunanidhi as far more cunning than Rajaji himself as he proved to the world how such a big leader could be dwarfed into oblivion in 1971 after using him in the 1967 elections to the Tamil Nadu Assembly. Just use and throw.
It is quite unlikely for Dinakaran to openly join hands with Stalin as the entire AIADMK cadre at his command as of now is against a person called Karunanidhi. This blind antagonism towards Karunanidhi has been keeping the AIADMK alive.
Hence, Dinakaran would be very careful in moving his coins.
He also knows that he is virtually occupying the position of Jayalalithaa after the demise of MGR in 1987. Dinakaran has been part of the entourage of Jayalalithaa in her initial years.
Though Janaki MGR was the obvious successor for her husband, promoted by none other the wily politician and MGR’s "kanakku pillai" (accountant) Rm.Veerappan, the former could not fight the the incredible onslaught of Jayalalithaa, who had youth, beauty, drive, energy and extraordinary brain on her side. After losing the 1989 elections, Janaki had to throw in the towel and hand over the party to Jayalalithaa.
Dinakaran knows both EPS and OPS are no match for him.
He would be sure that within a year or two, he could emerge as the numero uno of AIADMK. By then all the supporters of the current regime like D.Jayakumar, Sellur Raju, R.B.Udayakumar, etc. and even his rival at RK Nagar, E.Madhusoodhanan, would be at his feet.
But his real worry would be"superstar" Rajini and "ulaga nayagan" Kamal, the actors who have thrown their hats into the ring aiming at 2021 polls.
Both stars are not going to be afraid of his financial clout or his political strategies.
On the contrary, Dinakaran would have to spend sleepless nights on ensuring that his flock remained safe in his stables.
Surveys have already predicted that AIADMK would be far more vulnerable than the DMK if the two stars were to start poaching. Many such sheep would be available for them as low-hanging fruits if at all they choose to pick.
The major group that would desert both the AIADMK and the DMK is those who have not benefited in any way despite their parties being in power for the past more than half a century.
Both the parties could be accused of total nepotism by helping only a few families. While it was the families of the district secretaries and, of course, the first family in DMK, it is only the leaders and families subservient to the Mannargudi family (mischievously termed Mannargudi mafia) in the AIADMK who had been enjoying the loaves and fishes of office. Thus more than 95% of the cadre of both the parties, who have been sweating it out for years, remained only bystanders but satisfying themselves with the quinquinnial freebies thrown at them during the times of elections.
Such disgruntled elements, especially the youth, could run into a few crores. They could become very strong supporters of the two mega stars. That would obviously spell the death knell for the AIADMK while the DMK would struggle to survive. Stalin should be worried about his elder brother M.K.Azhagiri also.
Besides, Dinakaran should be definitely worried about the CBI, ED, etc. that are waiting for his scalp.
Naturally the most worried would be the current regime headed by Edappdi K.Palaniswami and O.Panneerselvam.
Despite their outward indifference to what is being enacted by Dinakaran, both of them know that their days are numbered. They are well aware of the phenomenal economic clout that Dinakaran has. Besides, he has been building up the mass base brick by brick as well by maintaining incredible equanimity even when confronted with the worst trials and tribulations.
He has been methodically meeting the party cadre and he knows full well that it would be possible to wean away the disgruntled elements in the AIADMK to his side anytime soon. Of course, the pending decision of the Madras High Court on the disqualification of the 18 MLAs who have been supporting him would definitely have a major bearing on his ability to protect his followers.
If these 18 MLAs escape disqualification, that would be a very great boost to his leadership. But, if the High Court were to affirm the Speaker’s decision that would be a great blow to Dinakran. Of course, he would appeal and is capable of even going to the Supreme Court. Similarly, if the MLAs escape disqualification, there is every possibility of the Tamil Nadu Government and also the Speaker P.Dhanapal approaching higher court. Either way, top notch lawyers would be able to fatten themselves.
More important at present is how the Edappadi-OPS duo is going to stem the rot within.
Both of them know very well that many of their current staunch supporters are fair-weather friends. These supporters are with them only because they are heading the Government which can survive up to 2021 if nothing extraordinary were to happen in between. Their litmus test would be the 2019 Lok Sabha polls But the moment these followers smell something amiss, they would switch their loyalty in a jiffy.
I am always reminded of what "navalar Nedunchezhiyan", who was fondly called - "nadamaadum palkalai kazhagam" did.Even trapeze artiste would find it difficult to emulate him.
Thanks to the pressure of then Chief Minister and DMK president M.Karunanidhi, it was Nedunchezhiyan who proposed the expulsion of matinee idol and party treasurer M.G.Ramachandran from the DMK in 1972.Only one MLA, C.V.Velappan of Kabilarmalai, had the guts to back MGR. All other tops leaders either stood by Karunanidhi or kept their mouths shut.
Same Neducheqhicyan chose to shift his loyalties to MGR when the actor proved in 1977 that he was a far formidable force than all the top DMK leaders envisaged him to be.Neduchezhiyan found a berth (always number 2) in all the three cabinets of MGR and even the cabinet of his successor Jayalalithaa. Ironically, he was opposed to Jayalalithaa also who snubbed him and three other leaders - Panrutti S.Ramachanddran, C.Aranganayagam and S.Thirunavukkarasu (now Thirunavukkarasar) - as "uthirndha romangal" (fallen hairs). Among the four, it was Nedunchezhiyan who was the first to join her cabinet. Ramachandran took close to 20 years to rejoin her party.
When senior politicians like Nedunchezhiyan, who was in politics close to half a century, could switch their loyalties without batting an eyelid, how about the smaller fries?
The strategy of Dinakaran is obvious. He is slowly using his friendly overtures to the partymen like a chisel, to chip away the party. He is in no hurry because he knows full well that whatever he does might indirectly help his political rival and DMK heir apparent M.K.Stalin.
Stalin is no Karunanidhi whose political sagacity is said to be next only to that of "Chanakya" Rajaji (C.Rajagopalachari). Honestly, I would consider Karunanidhi as far more cunning than Rajaji himself as he proved to the world how such a big leader could be dwarfed into oblivion in 1971 after using him in the 1967 elections to the Tamil Nadu Assembly. Just use and throw.
It is quite unlikely for Dinakaran to openly join hands with Stalin as the entire AIADMK cadre at his command as of now is against a person called Karunanidhi. This blind antagonism towards Karunanidhi has been keeping the AIADMK alive.
Hence, Dinakaran would be very careful in moving his coins.
He also knows that he is virtually occupying the position of Jayalalithaa after the demise of MGR in 1987. Dinakaran has been part of the entourage of Jayalalithaa in her initial years.
Though Janaki MGR was the obvious successor for her husband, promoted by none other the wily politician and MGR’s "kanakku pillai" (accountant) Rm.Veerappan, the former could not fight the the incredible onslaught of Jayalalithaa, who had youth, beauty, drive, energy and extraordinary brain on her side. After losing the 1989 elections, Janaki had to throw in the towel and hand over the party to Jayalalithaa.
Dinakaran knows both EPS and OPS are no match for him.
He would be sure that within a year or two, he could emerge as the numero uno of AIADMK. By then all the supporters of the current regime like D.Jayakumar, Sellur Raju, R.B.Udayakumar, etc. and even his rival at RK Nagar, E.Madhusoodhanan, would be at his feet.
But his real worry would be"superstar" Rajini and "ulaga nayagan" Kamal, the actors who have thrown their hats into the ring aiming at 2021 polls.
Both stars are not going to be afraid of his financial clout or his political strategies.
On the contrary, Dinakaran would have to spend sleepless nights on ensuring that his flock remained safe in his stables.
Surveys have already predicted that AIADMK would be far more vulnerable than the DMK if the two stars were to start poaching. Many such sheep would be available for them as low-hanging fruits if at all they choose to pick.
The major group that would desert both the AIADMK and the DMK is those who have not benefited in any way despite their parties being in power for the past more than half a century.
Both the parties could be accused of total nepotism by helping only a few families. While it was the families of the district secretaries and, of course, the first family in DMK, it is only the leaders and families subservient to the Mannargudi family (mischievously termed Mannargudi mafia) in the AIADMK who had been enjoying the loaves and fishes of office. Thus more than 95% of the cadre of both the parties, who have been sweating it out for years, remained only bystanders but satisfying themselves with the quinquinnial freebies thrown at them during the times of elections.
Such disgruntled elements, especially the youth, could run into a few crores. They could become very strong supporters of the two mega stars. That would obviously spell the death knell for the AIADMK while the DMK would struggle to survive. Stalin should be worried about his elder brother M.K.Azhagiri also.
Besides, Dinakaran should be definitely worried about the CBI, ED, etc. that are waiting for his scalp.